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Automotive industry: retail sales in June the market weak rebound

According to China car technology research center on June 2011 China car retail data of track statistics, General passenger cars total sales 903,265 car, compared rose 5.9%, reverse has since this year April yilai compared fell of situation, chain fell 24.9%; which narrow passenger cars Sales 785,561 car, compared growth for 9.3%, chain fell 5.3%; cross type passenger cars retail number for 117,704 car, compared fell 12.3%, continuous fourth a months compared negative, Achieved a growth of 14.9% per cent.
month passenger car market despite the limited rebound in a narrow sense, but after all, ending the negative growth trend. In June, car sales of 660,198 vehicles, an increase of 8.7%, stopped the negative trend since April this year, grew by 3%; Total sales of 90,455 SUV models, rose 19.8%, from the basic flat last month; June-sell 34,908 MPV models, fell 1.2%, fell-21.9%. SUV car for 5 consecutive month over month growth narrowed June special passenger cars to get back to growth, mainly from the strong recovery of car retail. In our view, 4 May Digest 2010 overdraft policies last train effects on demand June retail sales growth, it means that the 2011 real pent-up demand is beginning to release, a prerequisite for the release of Japanese car production caused by progress of recovery than expected industry-wide sales start to increase.
significant differentiation of different departments and enterprises. From retail data, Japanese car sales fell for the first time this year, declined to-4.79%. We think, this is Japan big earthquake days Department car manufacturers capacity subject of results, since March earthquake after, day Department car sales growth has appeared two bit number of fell, but in April, and May still maintained has micro-site growth, but in inventory continued lower, capacity and cannot completely release of double reasons Xia, led to has day Department car appeared has negative, market share also further fell 2.19% to 19.46%. In contrast, European, American and Korean car growth-much better than the industry, have achieved a growth of around 20%. Korean cars in particular, in the case of 4, 52 consecutive months of negative growth, in June from 21.04% per cent, last month raised more than 30%, 9.42% per cent market share.
investment grade we believe that preferential tax policies, bringing car subsidies in the early closing, Beijing severe restriction policies put enormous pressure on the plates for passenger cars, in view of the good January sales, and dealers to lower inventory levels, we think about 15% passenger car sales in March are expected to maintain growth. Continued investment in passenger-car industry ratings, recommendations concerned: Shanghai Automotive (600104, buy), yueda investment (600805, buy), Huayu car (600741, buy), Faw Fu Wei (600742, not rated) three quarters of investment opportunities.
risk factors. 1) decline in the macro-economic cycles affect passenger demand release; 2) passenger car product prices down sharply Central; 3) policies to curb passenger car demand more than expected; 4) raw materials prices rose sharply.

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